Alexander Shemetev Banks bankruptcy forecasting

Alexander Shemetev Banks bankruptcy forecasting

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Abstract: When a bank goes bankrupt – it is a situation of no good, in a whole. The author developed effective and easy to use models to make a complex forecast whether a bank goes bankrupt or not, what kind of bankruptcy will it be: fraudulent one, common one or the one provided through the acquisition/merge; the developed by the author model can also estimate the time till the bankruptcy moment and the main reasons that stimulate bankruptcy. To use the authors models the minimum input data is needed, so everyone can get the necessary information to use these developed by the author models with no problems. Some banks can not to be completely fair when presenting their financial statements. The developed by the author model can estimate the usage of the optimization transformations of financial statements that apply the banks and how do these transformations influence to the banks’ probability of failure. Also the author developed a simple to use model that replaces about 175 millions of calculations and replaces a great amount of a hard-to-get-information when estimating the complex overall risky stability of a bank sector in the region. In the end of this paper there is provided important information. You, dear reader, will know: what is the practice of banks’ bankruptcies in Russia in particular details like who mostly is the beneficiary at the bankruptcy procedures. You will also know the legislative background of the bankruptcies in Russia. Further, in the end of this paper, it is written in details next: how to make a complex financial analysis in Russia according to the main developed for the banks methods, which are reflected in the Russian legislation.

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